Tag Archive for political risks

Russian parliamentary elections – a not so glorious victory

United Russia’s victory in the Russian parliamentary election in September 2021 is unlikely to mark a departure from the strained relationship of EU and US with Russia and to improve the prospects for doing international business in the country. Only the more robust investors are willing to accept the risks linked to operating in the…

The future of US sanctions on Iran

One of the top foreign policy priorities for the Biden administration is to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran. The administration got one step closer to reaching this goal at the beginning of April when indirect talks began between the two parties in Vienna to negotiate a return to the Obama-era deal (JCPOA, see…

The Rocky Road Ahead for US-Russia Relations

Relations between the US and Russia are widely expected to continue their downward trajectory when President Biden enters office on 20th January. Biden arrives in office in very different circumstances from previous incumbents. In most recent cases, US presidents have started their terms by seeking better relations with Russia. This time, however, there are no illusions…

Scenarios for Regime Change in Venezuela

The domestic power-struggle in Venezuela between the acting regime leader, Nicolás Maduro, and opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, claiming presidency and calling for a free elections, is exacerbated by the geopolitical rivalry between Russia, supporting Maduro, and the US, supporting Guaidó, over the country’s fate.

Whither Ukraine?

After Yatsenyuk’s resignation his likely successor as prime minister holds few promises regarding the government’s reformist agenda.

Political Integrity at Risk

Advances in anti-corruption research explore how far a country’s institutions provide effective safeguards against various practices of corruption.

Dispute with Iran: A Strategic Risk Assessment Tool for the Nuclear Talks

What are the chances of success and what are the factors of risk in the new round of talks between the Iranian government and the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (“P5+1”) about Iran’s disputed nuclear programmed? These questions will draw much attention by political decision-makers and business executives and students of…

Preparing for Leadership Succession – Political Risk Scenarios in Central Asia

Stakeholders active in countries ruled by autocratic leaders should acquire a thorough understanding of potential “succession dilemmas” in order to be prepared to respond to a variety of political risk scenarios which could affect their interests. This article explores why certain regime types are more exposed to succession risks and lines out the potential negative…