Tag Archive for political risks

Scenarios for Regime Change in Venezuela

The domestic power-struggle in Venezuela between the acting regime leader, Nicolás Maduro, and opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, claiming presidency and calling for a free elections, is exacerbated by the geopolitical rivalry between Russia, supporting Maduro, and the US, supporting Guaidó, over the country’s fate.

Whither Ukraine?

After Yatsenyuk’s resignation his likely successor as prime minister holds few promises regarding the government’s reformist agenda.

Political Integrity at Risk

Advances in anti-corruption research explore how far a country’s institutions provide effective safeguards against various practices of corruption.

Dispute with Iran: A Strategic Risk Assessment Tool for the Nuclear Talks

What are the chances of success and what are the factors of risk in the new round of talks between the Iranian government and the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (“P5+1”) about Iran’s disputed nuclear programmed? These questions will draw much attention by political decision-makers and business executives and students of…

Preparing for Leadership Succession – Political Risk Scenarios in Central Asia

Stakeholders active in countries ruled by autocratic leaders should acquire a thorough understanding of potential “succession dilemmas” in order to be prepared to respond to a variety of political risk scenarios which could affect their interests. This article explores why certain regime types are more exposed to succession risks and lines out the potential negative…

A Reality Check for Europe

The attention currently received by the European Union on a global scale is no longer based on a previously assumed attraction it portrayed as a role model for regional integration. Paradoxically, the Euro crisis may have been rooted in the attempt to establish a monetary union of economically diverse member states without also providing for…

Inside Political Risks: Political Stability Bias vs. Regime Type Analysis

One major lesson learnt by business investors engaging in foreign countries in the light of regime change events in 2011 is that the conventional concept of political stability may be overvalued. In contrast, it is the actual diversity of regime types which should receive the appropriate appreciation when assessing political risks. The concept of regime…

A Downgrade of Confidence

Political risks know no vacation. August 2011 will be remembered as a month of misery, not simply because of the politically induced crash on the stock markets during the first two weeks, but also because of the spreading sensation of angst that the industrialized world might be facing a new economic recession. Put in a…