Uncertainty seems to be the only predictable outcome of the April 2023 parliamentary election Bulgaria is a country without a parliament. The legislature has been dissolved in January 2023, when President Rumen Radev called a snap poll after a repeated failure to form a government. Since then, Bulgaria has been living under a caretaker cabinet,…
The domestic power-struggle in Venezuela between the acting regime leader, Nicolás Maduro, and opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, claiming presidency and calling for a free elections, is exacerbated by the geopolitical rivalry between Russia, supporting Maduro, and the US, supporting Guaidó, over the country’s fate.
Stakeholders active in countries ruled by autocratic leaders should acquire a thorough understanding of potential “succession dilemmas” in order to be prepared to respond to a variety of political risk scenarios which could affect their interests. This article explores why certain regime types are more exposed to succession risks and lines out the potential negative…
One major lesson learnt by business investors engaging in foreign countries in the light of regime change events in 2011 is that the conventional concept of political stability may be overvalued. In contrast, it is the actual diversity of regime types which should receive the appropriate appreciation when assessing political risks. The concept of regime…
Organized violence, be it politically or criminally motivated, poses the most prominent risk to the socio-economic development of a country. Some 1.5 billion people worldwide are affected by violence, a disturbing number, revealed by the World Bank in “The World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development”. The Report contains a major shift in focus…
The popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt pose the fundamental question of how best to analyze regime change driven by the power of the people. This article explores dynamic patterns of behavior both on part of civil protest movements and targeted autocratic regimes. These patterns of interaction rule the confrontation and its ultimate outcome, and…
