Tag Archive for political risks

Breaking the Cycles of Violence

Organized violence, be it politically or criminally motivated, poses the most prominent risk to the socio-economic development of a country. Some 1.5 billion people worldwide are affected by violence, a disturbing number, revealed by the World Bank in “The World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development”. The Report contains a major shift in focus…

Conflict Resolution (II): A Risk Evaluation Tool for Mediators

The second part of the article on conflict resolution draws the conclusions from the previously developed argument, that mitigating the risks of peace negotiations, as perceived by the conflict parties, is the key to ending protracted conflict (see Conflict Resolution (I): Peace-Making and Risk-Taking). The risk evaluation tool introduced below, aims to identify and assess…

Conflict Resolution (I): Peace-making and Risk-taking

Parties who are involved in a protracted conflict must take risks in order to be able to settle their dispute. This argument may seem counter-intuitive at first, but consider the Middle East conflict as the perhaps most notorious case. For many years of on-and-off peace talks, both the Israeli government and the representation of the…

Corruption Risks and International Climate Investments

The several hundred billion Dollars to be invested in measures to fight climate change over the  coming years, not only encourage the good who seek to halt dangerous global warming, but they also attract the crooks who look for new booty. Transparency International (TI), the renowned international civil anti-corruption organization, recently published a comprehensive report…

Risk Propensity and Conflict Behavior

Advisors active in conflict management need to consider what drives the conflict behavior of the parties involved in a dispute. Conflict behavior is, to a certain extent, motivated by rational strategic interests. But the escalation of a conflict also results from socio-psychological factors, such as attribution effects, as well as cognitive biases, such as framing…

The Political Risk Analyst (II)

Political Risk Analysis is the child of two parents: political economy and area studies. Both academic fields are, per se, interdisciplinary and multifold in their approaches to studying the interrelations between political, economic, social and cultural developments in specific countries and regions, and are therefore a perfect match. As outlined in the first part of…

Political Risk and Political Due Diligence (I)

The dramatic and still undecided processes of regime change in the Arab world highlight the fundamental relevance of political risk for doing business in countries that were wrongfully regarded as stable, until the outbreak of civil unrest. Even though political violence in host countries is the most vivid case of political risk, there are other…

Food Security within the Global Risk Matrix

The rules of political survival call for the governments meeting at the G20 summit in Paris on February 18 to improve food security. While the scandal of almost one billion people worldwide affected by chronic hunger persists, it is the political risk of food riots that might give the matter a new priority. Various factors…

Regime Change by the People

The popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt pose the fundamental question of how best to analyze regime change driven by the power of the people. This article explores dynamic patterns of behavior both on part of civil protest movements and targeted autocratic regimes. These patterns of interaction rule the confrontation and its ultimate outcome, and…

The Corrosion of Democracy

What has happened to the idea and practice of democracy? What many vigilant observers of countries and political systems might have concluded from their daily analysis of political events and processes, has now been confirmed as a global pattern. Democratization has not only come to a halt but has been in decline across the world…