Risk Assessment

Risk Propensity and Conflict Behavior

Advisors active in conflict management need to consider what drives the conflict behavior of the parties involved in a dispute. Conflict behavior is, to a certain extent, motivated by rational strategic interests. But the escalation of a conflict also results from socio-psychological factors, such as attribution effects, as well as cognitive biases, such as framing…

The Political Risk Analyst (II)

Political Risk Analysis is the child of two parents: political economy and area studies. Both academic fields are, per se, interdisciplinary and multifold in their approaches to studying the interrelations between political, economic, social and cultural developments in specific countries and regions, and are therefore a perfect match. As outlined in the first part of…

Political Risk and Political Due Diligence (I)

The dramatic and still undecided processes of regime change in the Arab world highlight the fundamental relevance of political risk for doing business in countries that were wrongfully regarded as stable, until the outbreak of civil unrest. Even though political violence in host countries is the most vivid case of political risk, there are other…

Food Security within the Global Risk Matrix

The rules of political survival call for the governments meeting at the G20 summit in Paris on February 18 to improve food security. While the scandal of almost one billion people worldwide affected by chronic hunger persists, it is the political risk of food riots that might give the matter a new priority. Various factors…

WEF’s Global Risks 2011: New Risk Clusters in Focus

In the lead-up to its annual meeting at Davos, Switzerland, the World Economic Forum (WEF) issued the report Global Risks 2011. The report is set in the context of the WEF’s new platform, the Risk Response Network. The organization’s proclaimed objective to translate analysis into the development of practical solutions for the planet’s future, gives…

The Shift in Climate Policy

The UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Mexico, which was concluded on 10 December 2010, ended on a positive note. All parties, including industrialized and developing countries, agreed on the general objective of low-emissions policies in order to keep global temperature rise below two degree Celsius. Mitigation of global warming remains an important risk strategy.…

The Four Pillars of Counter-Terrorism

By military means alone terrorism cannot be defeated. This rule, from which few exemptions exist on the national level, is fully evident in view of today’s prominent transnational terrorism spread by Islamist extremists. Therefore, counter-terrorism must pursue a comprehensive strategy that also includes psychological means in response to the mechanisms of fear triggered by indiscriminate…

Reputational Due Diligence – The key to strategic risk management

Reputational Due Diligence supports the strategic risk management of business ventures in international markets. As introduced in the following article, the combination of Integrity Due Diligence with Political Due Diligence enables an investor to gain a comprehensive assessment of possible reputational risks attached to a business partner. This concerns compliance and corporate governance issues in…