Carsten Giersch

Political Integrity at Risk

Advances in anti-corruption research explore how far a country’s institutions provide effective safeguards against various practices of corruption.

Dispute with Iran: A Strategic Risk Assessment Tool for the Nuclear Talks

What are the chances of success and what are the factors of risk in the new round of talks between the Iranian government and the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (“P5+1”) about Iran’s disputed nuclear programmed? These questions will draw much attention by political decision-makers and business executives and students of…

A Reality Check for Europe

The attention currently received by the European Union on a global scale is no longer based on a previously assumed attraction it portrayed as a role model for regional integration. Paradoxically, the Euro crisis may have been rooted in the attempt to establish a monetary union of economically diverse member states without also providing for…

Inside Political Risks: Political Stability Bias vs. Regime Type Analysis

One major lesson learnt by business investors engaging in foreign countries in the light of regime change events in 2011 is that the conventional concept of political stability may be overvalued. In contrast, it is the actual diversity of regime types which should receive the appropriate appreciation when assessing political risks. The concept of regime…

Inquiring the World’s Future

Any decision-maker in government or business who is concerned about the planet’s sustainable future and is looking for serious guidance, might consider studying the “2011 State of the Future” report. Published by The Millennium Project, an international participatory think tank established in 1996, this year’s report is the fifteenth of its kind, and it is…

A Downgrade of Confidence

Political risks know no vacation. August 2011 will be remembered as a month of misery, not simply because of the politically induced crash on the stock markets during the first two weeks, but also because of the spreading sensation of angst that the industrialized world might be facing a new economic recession. Put in a…