Tag Archive for political risks

Dispute with Iran: A Strategic Risk Assessment Tool for the Nuclear Talks

What are the chances of success and what are the factors of risk in the new round of talks between the Iranian government and the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (“P5+1”) about Iran’s disputed nuclear programmed? These questions will draw much attention by political decision-makers and business executives and students of…

Preparing for Leadership Succession – Political Risk Scenarios in Central Asia

Stakeholders active in countries ruled by autocratic leaders should acquire a thorough understanding of potential “succession dilemmas” in order to be prepared to respond to a variety of political risk scenarios which could affect their interests. This article explores why certain regime types are more exposed to succession risks and lines out the potential negative…

A Reality Check for Europe

The attention currently received by the European Union on a global scale is no longer based on a previously assumed attraction it portrayed as a role model for regional integration. Paradoxically, the Euro crisis may have been rooted in the attempt to establish a monetary union of economically diverse member states without also providing for…

Inside Political Risks: Political Stability Bias vs. Regime Type Analysis

One major lesson learnt by business investors engaging in foreign countries in the light of regime change events in 2011 is that the conventional concept of political stability may be overvalued. In contrast, it is the actual diversity of regime types which should receive the appropriate appreciation when assessing political risks. The concept of regime…

A Downgrade of Confidence

Political risks know no vacation. August 2011 will be remembered as a month of misery, not simply because of the politically induced crash on the stock markets during the first two weeks, but also because of the spreading sensation of angst that the industrialized world might be facing a new economic recession. Put in a…

Breaking the Cycles of Violence

Organized violence, be it politically or criminally motivated, poses the most prominent risk to the socio-economic development of a country. Some 1.5 billion people worldwide are affected by violence, a disturbing number, revealed by the World Bank in “The World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development”. The Report contains a major shift in focus…

Conflict Resolution (II): A Risk Evaluation Tool for Mediators

The second part of the article on conflict resolution draws the conclusions from the previously developed argument, that mitigating the risks of peace negotiations, as perceived by the conflict parties, is the key to ending protracted conflict (see Conflict Resolution (I): Peace-Making and Risk-Taking). The risk evaluation tool introduced below, aims to identify and assess…

Conflict Resolution (I): Peace-making and Risk-taking

Parties who are involved in a protracted conflict must take risks in order to be able to settle their dispute. This argument may seem counter-intuitive at first, but consider the Middle East conflict as the perhaps most notorious case. For many years of on-and-off peace talks, both the Israeli government and the representation of the…

Corruption Risks and International Climate Investments

The several hundred billion Dollars to be invested in measures to fight climate change over the  coming years, not only encourage the good who seek to halt dangerous global warming, but they also attract the crooks who look for new booty. Transparency International (TI), the renowned international civil anti-corruption organization, recently published a comprehensive report…

Risk Propensity and Conflict Behavior

Advisors active in conflict management need to consider what drives the conflict behavior of the parties involved in a dispute. Conflict behavior is, to a certain extent, motivated by rational strategic interests. But the escalation of a conflict also results from socio-psychological factors, such as attribution effects, as well as cognitive biases, such as framing…